Lately, it appears a fresh wave of animal spirits has gripped the markets — just look at the post-election rally in equities. Investors seem to have bought into the narrative that tax cuts and deregulation will jump-start the economy, while at the same time ignoring the risks inherent in an “America-First” protectionist agenda.
In times of market loftiness, it serves us well to reexamine how similar cycles have played out in the past, and there is probably no better case study than Seth Klarman’s handling of the late 1990s. Klarman is a well-respected value investor who founded the Baupost Group in 1982. Since then he has generated an average annual return of 19%. Klarman’s investing philosophy can be summed up by the title of his book Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor.