Psychological Bias: Mere Association
Imagine for a moment you are a child attacked by a dog, or an adult who just got engaged at a certain restaurant. Powerful emotions would be taking hold in both situations, and associations would begin to form. In the case of the child, they may forever associate dogs with fear. In the case of the adult, they may forever associate that restaurant with joy. That process of association can have powerful consequences on a persons judgement.
Let’s see if we can better understand how association comes to affect our lives.
Continue reading “Human Nature #1: Association”
Thomas Bayes was an English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister who is known for having formulated the theorem that bears his name. Bayes Theorem originated as Bayes’ answer to the inverse probability question. Normal probability states, given a certain number of white and black balls, what is the probability of drawing a certain color ball. Inverse probability states, given that you drew a certain color ball, what can be said about the original make up of white and black balls.
Instead of focusing on the formula ( P(event|newinfo) = P(newinfo|event) * P(event) / P(newinfo) ), let’s focus on understanding the deeper concepts behind Bayesian thinking.
Continue reading “Numeracy #1: Bayes Theorem”
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Step by step you get ahead, but not necessarily in fast spurts. But you build discipline by preparing for fast spurts. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day – if you live long enough – most people get what they deserve.” – Charlie Munger
“Each day acquire something that will fortify you against poverty, against death, indeed against other misfortunes as well; and after you have run over many thoughts, select one to be thoroughly digested that day.” -Seneca
Follow along on my daily journey to become wiser. The road taken will focus on security analysis but there will also be detours into the worlds of math, programming, human nature, physics, nature, history, and economics.
My goal is to realize my potential and help others do the same. Hope you enjoy.